REOs, Short Sales, and Shadow Inventory

Some people believe that Pacific Palisades, like many other areas around Los Angeles, has not reached the bottom level of its current market price point. They comment about the bank REO (Real Estate Owned) pressure on prices, short-sale activity, and an assumed large volume of similar financially-distressed owners whose properties will soon need to be sold.

Anecdotally, this has not felt to be the case for many months. We have noted multiple offers in many cases, sales levels being maintained, and inventory not increasing significantly in comparison with the rate of sales. For example, at the current rate of sales of Palisades homes, there is less than a seven month level of inventory of homes available, which equates to a market that is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers.

In order to try to ascertain whether the financially-distressed property numbers might have a greater future impact, we have analyzed the past year of local sales, with the following findings.

The REO market has been relatively small in the Palisades. Only 10 homes have been listed in the past 12 months in the Palisades, with two remaining on the market today. Those that sold averaged five percent higher than the prices at which they were listed. There are currently approximately 14 additional homes owned by lenders, which obviously will be put on the market for sale. However, with approximately 140 homes for sale at present, at the rate that these REOs come on market, there is very little impact on the overall marketplace.

The remainder of the “shadow inventory” consists of approximately 35 homes which have been scheduled for repossession by banks at public auction. Many of these may eventually become REOs. However, a significant number of these will be successfully sold as negotiated short-sales.

A review of the last 12 months’ local short-sale activity showed that 24 homes were listed and four of these have already sold, with four others in solid escrows. Some of the remaining active short-sale listings have accepted contracts which are in initial stages of being negotiated with the lenders.

If all of the Palisades homes that are currently bank-owned (or in the process of being such) were to come on the market, it would equal approximately 35 percent of the number of homes currently for sale. This is substantially less in magnitude than in the various areas of the country where short sale and REO activity is 50 percent or more of the market, and the shadow inventory is also considerable. So far this year, only eight percent of the sales in the Palisades have been REOs or short sales! Naturally, only time will tell. However, it would appear to take a great deal of increased financial pressures for our local market to be greatly impacted by REOs or shadow inventory.

Rising Treasury Rates Trigger Higher Mortgage Rates

The US Treasury bond market faces a big test this week, with market interest
rates on long-term government securities now at their highest level since
last spring. Last week set off alarms in the bond market because Treasury
yields broke out of the trading range they'd been in since mid- December.
The 10- year T-note yield jumped to 3.64% on Friday, up from 3.32% a week
earlier and the highest since May. The steep rebound in bond yields since
October has in large part reflected the economy's surprising strength. The
rising Treasury rates matter for more than just that market, they also
influence the mortgage rates. Interest rates are rising as some investors
bet that we're getting close to the point where the Federal Reserve will
begin to tighten credit.

As reported in the Los Angeles Times: Tom Petruno, February 7, 2011

Real Estate Market Update- January 2011

As the first month of 2011 has passed, and although there have not been enough sales to draw any conclusions from, the following is the initial picture:

The number of sales (16) in January was 38% lower than last year at this time, and the median sale prices were 33% lower. Prices per square foot were approximately 12% lower during this first month of 2011. There is a 7% larger inventory of homes available this year. Some indications that the market may be leveling out are that the average days on market is 37% shorter than it was at this time last year (now 86 days). One tangible sign that the market may be approaching its bottoming out level is that at the current rate of sales, there is a 6.5 month inventory of homes available in the Palisades. It has generally been agreed that when the number of months of inventory is above 7 months it has become a buyers market. Where as below 6 months it tends to benefit the sellers.

“Wait-and-See” Buyers May Lose Out

By Michael Edlen, Real Estate Consultant

Published in Palisadian-Post and Santa Monica Mirror

Real estate agents have seen increasing numbers of prospective buyers repeating what has become a familiar pattern.  In the current slower market, many buyers hesitate to make a purchase decision even when their search criteria have almost all been met by a property they have viewed. However, many prospective buyers may look back with regret if they are not prepared to make offers when a home meets their needs.

Of course this reluctance has served well from one point of view. Clearly prices have been in a downward trend for quite a while even in relatively stronger market areas such as the Westside of Los Angeles. 


However, it has long been noticed in real estate as well as other financial arenas that no one “rings a bell” at the bottom of the market. In some neighborhoods the bottom may already be occurring, despite the overall general news and market statistics. In fact, it is not uncommon for there to be multiple offers in some of the more desirable areas when a home is priced very competitively. In recent months we have had multiple offers on two of our listings north of Montana, both of them sold for more than the list price.

Another example occurred in the Palisades with a new home that had been on the market for several months. The seller finally decided to adjust the asking price by approximately 10% with the intent to make it extremely attractive to buyers so that at least one of the prospective buyers with a “wait-and-see” attitude might be incentivized to present an offer. Within a few days three buyers wrote offers, and within the week it was sold at a higher price than the reduced price point. One of the unsuccessful buyers was very sorry they lost out because they waited too long to decide. This put them in the middle of a bidding war that they lost in the end. During the two-week contingency period they even offered to increase the price.

Many buyers seem to feel that nothing is well-priced today, and eventually can be purchased for lower prices. While this may be true of some listings, those which are well-priced to begin with are sold rather quickly even in this slower market. Moreover, decisive buyers usually do not regret negotiating the best terms on purchasing a home that meets most of their criteria. A client of ours recently thanked us for encouraging them to move forward rather than continuing on the sidelines in the hopes that an even better opportunity might show up. They also benefited from their timely decision because of the historically low cost loans still available.

No one has an infallible crystal ball to know when the best timing for a purchase will be. However, unless someone intends on selling within a few years, odds are that they will look back and feel good about having bought sooner rather than later.

For more articles about the home buying and selling process and current real estate trends see MichaelEdlen.com

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